On Testing Equal Conditional Predictive Ability Under Measurement Error

Tests of conditional predictive ability

We propose a framework for out-of-sample predictive ability testing and forecast selection designed for use in the realistic situation in which the forecasting model is possibly misspecified, due to unmodeled dynamics, unmodeled heterogeneity, incorrect functional form, or any combination of these. Relative to the existing literature (Diebold and Mariano (1995) and West (1996)), we introduce tw...

TESTING FOR AUTOCORRELATION IN UNEQUALLY REPLICATED FUNCTIONAL MEASUREMENT ERROR MODELS

In the ordinary linear models, regressing the residuals against lagged values has been suggested as an approach to test the hypothesis of zero autocorrelation among residuals. In this paper we extend these results to the both equally and unequally replicated functionally measurement error models. We consider the equally and unequally replicated cases separately, because in the first case the re...

Testing for Unconditional Predictive Ability

This chapter provides an overview of pseudo-out-of-sample tests of unconditional predictive ability. We begin by providing an overview of the literature, including both empirical applications and theoretical contributions. We then delineate two distinct methodologies for conducting inference: one based on the analytics in West (1996) and the other based on those in Giacomini and White (2006). T...

Tests of Equal Predictive Ability with Real-Time Data

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy applied to direct, multi–step predictions from both non-nested and nested linear regression models. In contrast to earlier work in the literature, our asymptotics take account of the real-time, revised nature of the data. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that our asymptotic approximations yield r...

Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Emerging Methods for Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability